Fund Sense Spreadsheets
Hunter Greer, designer
Know Your Portfolio
An annual report has nothing to do with your results. You don't buy everything at the beginning of January and sell everything at the end of December. Even if you did, mutual-fund managers routinely fail to beat unmanaged indices. Individual investors are on average even less successful. Do you know whether your returns--from trading or holding--lagged stock indices, bank CDs, or even money market funds?
A market is an average of crowd perceptions of long-term prospects. Unfortunately tomorrow's news will create a new long-term opinion, and only inside traders guess that opinion today. Rather than forecasting, the Fund Sense spreadsheets prepare you for whichever way the markets move. Market direction is a chance event, but chance favors the prepared mind (Louis Pasteur).
The Fund Sense Spreadsheets
Log spreadsheets record your trades and evaluate your performance vs. benchmarks. The Logs predict taxes, fees, penalties, wash sales, and sales charges.
The Buy/Sell spreadsheet warns you of a fund's transaction restrictions and allows you to set buy and sell signals. Strategy options include asset allocation, dollar-cost averaging, moving averages, momentum, value, stops, and cyclical models.
The Net Worth spreadsheet tallies how you're doing overall.
Indicator spreadsheets use indices and exchange rates to predict daily closing prices.
Charts track NAVs and distributions, including total return for bonds.
Users
Financial planners and advisors can use the Fund Sense spreadsheets to educate and advise clients.
Individual investors can run the Fund Sense spreadsheets on a home computer.
The underlying code is for sale to proprietary financial programs.
System Requirements and Customization
The Fund Sense spreadsheets run on any computer that has the Microsoft Excel application program.
Customization for the user's internet service provider, operating system, and macro program allows full automation of the spreadsheet suite.
Results
For myself, in the six years from 1 Jan 1999 to 31 Dec 2006, the Fund Sense prototypes yielded +5.3% per year while the S&P 500 returned +1.9% per year.
For client B, from 1 Jan 2002 to 6 Nov 2008, Fund Sense beat the S&P 500 by 6.2% per year.
As always, historical results cannot predict future returns. Moreover, your returns are a function of the spreadsheet parameters you choose.
Full-Service Clients
I charge full-service clients only if I beat a client-specified benchmark (for example, a combination of the S&P 500 and money market rates). As my fee I ask for 10% of the profits beyond the benchmark.
I currently manage $83,000 for one full-service client.
The Designer
I began building the Fund Sense spreadsheets in 1994.
My background is in chemistry and biology; my day job is freelance science and technical writing and editing. At Apple Computer I edited and wrote technical manuals and worked with firmware coders and interface designers.
Contact Information
For financial advisors, investment clubs, user groups, and individual investors:
Hunter Greer
Ashland, OR
e-mail to fundsense at aol.comHunter Greer, designer
Know Your Portfolio
An annual report has nothing to do with your results. You don't buy everything at the beginning of January and sell everything at the end of December. Even if you did, mutual-fund managers routinely fail to beat unmanaged indices. Individual investors are on average even less successful. Do you know whether your returns--from trading or holding--lagged stock indices, bank CDs, or even money market funds?
A market is an average of crowd perceptions of long-term prospects. Unfortunately tomorrow's news will create a new long-term opinion, and only inside traders guess that opinion today. Rather than forecasting, the Fund Sense spreadsheets prepare you for whichever way the markets move. Market direction is a chance event, but chance favors the prepared mind (Louis Pasteur).
The Fund Sense Spreadsheets
Log spreadsheets record your trades and evaluate your performance vs. benchmarks. The Logs predict taxes, fees, penalties, wash sales, and sales charges.
The Buy/Sell spreadsheet warns you of a fund's transaction restrictions and allows you to set buy and sell signals. Strategy options include asset allocation, dollar-cost averaging, moving averages, momentum, value, stops, and cyclical models.
The Net Worth spreadsheet tallies how you're doing overall.
Indicator spreadsheets use indices and exchange rates to predict daily closing prices.
Charts track NAVs and distributions, including total return for bonds.
Users
Financial planners and advisors can use the Fund Sense spreadsheets to educate and advise clients.
Individual investors can run the Fund Sense spreadsheets on a home computer.
The underlying code is for sale to proprietary financial programs.
System Requirements and Customization
The Fund Sense spreadsheets run on any computer that has the Microsoft Excel application program.
Customization for the user's internet service provider, operating system, and macro program allows full automation of the spreadsheet suite.
Results
For myself, in the six years from 1 Jan 1999 to 31 Dec 2006, the Fund Sense prototypes yielded +5.3% per year while the S&P 500 returned +1.9% per year.
For client B, from 1 Jan 2002 to 6 Nov 2008, Fund Sense beat the S&P 500 by 6.2% per year.
As always, historical results cannot predict future returns. Moreover, your returns are a function of the spreadsheet parameters you choose.
Full-Service Clients
I charge full-service clients only if I beat a client-specified benchmark (for example, a combination of the S&P 500 and money market rates). As my fee I ask for 10% of the profits beyond the benchmark.
I currently manage $83,000 for one full-service client.
The Designer
I began building the Fund Sense spreadsheets in 1994.
My background is in chemistry and biology; my day job is freelance science and technical writing and editing. At Apple Computer I edited and wrote technical manuals and worked with firmware coders and interface designers.
Contact Information
For financial advisors, investment clubs, user groups, and individual investors:
Hunter Greer
Ashland, OR
Energy Stop
Wednesday, 27 December 2006 2:22 A GMT
Today I completed selling all holdings in the energy sector and moved the proceeds to money market. As usual, I have no idea whether I'll want to stay out of energy funds, but I do want to limit the decline from the high. The market will quickly tell me whether I'm right. If any fund in the energy sector re-acquires momentum, I'll buy back--being careful not to create a wash unless absolutely necessary.
Energy Re-Buy, but Small
Wednesday, 10 January 2007 2:33 A GMT
Today we made a small buy of AIM energy. The other three energy funds we follow are still waiting for the wash period to expire.
DWS Scudder Destroys Pacific Opportunities
Tuesday, 23 January 2007 6:04 A GMT
DWS Scudder has announced its intention of merging the Pacific Opportunities fund into the International fund (most recent renaming: International Select Equity fund). This merger is severely stupid, for two reasons: 1) Of the Scudder funds I follow, I believe Pac Op is the best-performing for the rolling year. 2) Removing Pac Op puts a geographical hole in the Scudder lineup.
Destroying Pacific Opportunities is the dumbest move by fund management since American Century decided to close, immediately before natural resources began a multiyear boom, its Global Natural Resources fund. My point is not that anyone should be able to predict a boom (or bust), but that mutual-fund companies in their own interest should maintain diverse fund options. Diversity maintains the total under management in the family, even though the size of the particular fund itself doesn't allow a Cheney-level management rake-off. I've already voted my proxies against the proposal, and so has my client, for a total of approximately $13,000 in "no" votes. Nor do I believe Scudder will play fair with totaling the votes--witness how American Century changed the rules after the GNR proxy vote went against management, and how H-P pressured institutional voters to approve the Compaq merger. I'm making plans to move my Asia ex-Japan money to AIM--an option only if your AIM account is no-load, pre-merger Invesco shares.
China Crash Update
Wednesday, 7 March 2007 1:42 A GMT
One comment I haven't heard about the market down days starting 27 Feb is that investors remember March 2000 and are attempting to respond correctly this time. I know I am.
For the record, in two taxable accounts we were 55-56% in cash as of the close on 5 March, 91% cash for an IRA. We obeyed a stop, but we also have a go. The advantage of IRAs in a crash is that the investor can re-buy without worrying about wash sales.
Meanwhile we're beating the the S&P 500 by 6.7% per year since Jan 2002, down from 7% before the down days.
Fidelity's Lack Thereof
Tuesday, 27 March 2007 12:22 A GMT
Fidelity is above the industry mean in terms of providing timely or accurate year-end distributions, but as of 26 March 2007 the company is being covert about early-April distributions, even as to record dates. We don't want to dodge distributions, but we do want to avoid inadvertently buying them.
China Syndrome
Monday, 23 April 2007 3:04 A GMT
On 27 Feb we began selling whatever funds were free of washes and holding-period fees. We reached 50% in cash in mid-March. If individual funds hadn't resumed positive momentum before we were free of washes and fees, cash would have reached 100% by the end of March. By 20 April we're 5% in cash (again). Exact numbers soon.
Now Even with S&P
Wednesday, 6 June 2007 4:50 A GMT
For the client portfolio we have again risen to even with the S&P 500 in terms of year-to-date return. We had begun lagging in mid-March.
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